{"id":16967,"date":"2022-08-16T12:44:51","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T10:44:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.kivuavenir.com\/?p=16967"},"modified":"2022-08-16T12:56:38","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T10:56:38","slug":"kenya-declares-william-ruto-as-its-new-president-in-an-election-drama-thats-far-from-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/kenya-declares-william-ruto-as-its-new-president-in-an-election-drama-thats-far-from-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Kenya declares William Ruto as its new president in an election drama that\u2019s far from over"},"content":{"rendered":"

Justin Willis:<\/strong>\u00a0The days prior to the declaration of the presidential result were full of suspense. The decision of the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission to make polling station results forms available on a portal but not to offer its own tally based on these created a sort of national maths puzzle \u2013 anyone with the necessary resources could work out the overall result for themselves.<\/p>\n

The problem was that most of us (that includes me) don\u2019t have those resources \u2013 46,000 forms is a lot of data entry. So rival tallies circulated for several days. Then, as it seemed that the tallies were pointing to a narrow victory for Ruto, supporters of his rival Odinga began to allege that forms had been faked or altered.<\/p>\n

Just before the chair of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission finally announced a Ruto victory, more than half of the members of the commission held an\u00a0extraordinary press conference\u00a0in which they spoke of their pride in having raised the standard of elections. But in somewhat contradiction to that, they expressed their unwillingness to endorse the results. They effectively urged Odinga to challenge the outcome in court.<\/p>\n

No doubt he will \u2013 though it\u2019s not yet clear what the basis of the challenge would be.<\/p>\n

The outcome of a court case is impossible to predict. If the court were to find that the process was flawed, even in a way that would not have changed the outcome, it could\u00a0overturn\u00a0the result as it did in 2017. And the election results were clearly close.<\/p>\n

Emma Elfversson:<\/strong>\u00a0Commenting as a peace researcher, a first observation is that up to now, the election process has, aside from\u00a0isolated violent incidents, been peaceful. One Kenyan analyst did\u00a0observe\u00a0however that this is hardly setting the bar very high, and Kenyans should be allowed to ask for more than that.<\/p>\n

The controversial scenes at the announcement of the winner are worrying. Just before the announcement, four commissioners from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission\u00a0publicly distanced themselves\u00a0from the announcement, saying the process had been \u2018opaque\u2019. This came shortly after\u00a0accusations of foul play by Azimio\u2019s chief agent.<\/p>\n

Confident\u00a0statements on social media\u00a0have bred expectations of victory among supporters of both alliances. There was a\u00a0risk\u00a0that frustrations could turn violent. Another risk is that people protesting peacefully, would be met with excess force from the police, as has\u00a0happened in the past.<\/p>\n

Besides the division around Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, the fact that the race was very close, and\u00a0turnout was relatively low, may increase incentives to challenge the results.<\/p>\n

On the positive side, the example of 2017, when\u00a0the courts annulled\u00a0the first-round Presidential results, underlines that there is a viable, peaceful avenue for investigating claims of malfeasance.<\/p>\n

What insights can you offer about the result?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Justin Willis:<\/strong>\u00a0Court decisions aside, unless they are able to find evidence of rigging on a truly vast scale, Odinga\u2019s team have some uncomfortable facts to face. Despite the support of the outgoing president, Uhuru Kenyatta, it seems that they failed to win over central Kenya. In regions that have previously turned out strongly for Odinga (such as the Coast), some voters seem to have simply stayed at home this year. At a time of increasing hardship, Odinga\u2019s association with the incumbent may not have been an advantage.<\/p>\n

So far, the public mood in this uncertain time has been patient and calm. Hopefully, it will remain so through any court process.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the\u00a0fall in turnout\u00a0\u2013 the first since 2002 \u2013 suggests many Kenyans are, in any event, sceptical of whether either candidate will deliver on their manifesto commitments.<\/p>\n

Ruto will almost certainly have to defend his win in court. But if he succeeds there, his bigger challenge will be to deliver the economic change he has promised to Kenyans.<\/p>\n

With the world as a whole facing hard times, that will be a tough pledge to keep.<\/p>\n

Emma Elfversson:<\/strong>\u00a0On a disappointing side note, media attention will likely remain on the presidency rather that shifting to the other elected positions, including the 47 governors. A\u00a0poll by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA)\u00a0(a market research company) just before the elections showed that most Kenyans consider the governor position more important than the presidency.<\/p>\n

The fact that several female governors have been elected underline important\u00a0strides in women\u2019s political representation\u00a0in these elections.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Justin Willis:\u00a0The days prior to the declaration of the presidential result were full of suspense. The decision of the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission to make polling station results forms available on a portal but not to offer its own tally based on these created a sort of national maths puzzle \u2013 anyone with the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":16969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"0","type":"percentage","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[{"good_text":""}],"bad":[{"bad_text":""}],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[{"rating_text":"","rating_number":"10"}],"price":[{"shop":"","price":"","link":"","icon":""}],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"enable_post_split":"0","post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5314],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16967"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16967\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16970,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16967\/revisions\/16970"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}