{"id":17489,"date":"2023-11-16T11:28:02","date_gmt":"2023-11-16T09:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.kivuavenir.com\/?p=17489"},"modified":"2023-11-16T11:28:02","modified_gmt":"2023-11-16T09:28:02","slug":"drc-kabila-family-legacy-looms-large-over-the-countrys-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/drc-kabila-family-legacy-looms-large-over-the-countrys-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"DRC: Kabila family legacy looms large over the country\u2019s polls"},"content":{"rendered":"

The courts will confirm the final list of candidates. One key political figure has yet to make his intentions known: Joseph Kabila. He was president for 18 years until Tshisekedi took over in 2019.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

The DRC\u2019s constitution allows two five-year terms<\/span><\/a>, but he remained in power by delaying elections<\/span><\/a>. He holds substantial political, military and business sway. Jonathan R. Beloff is a political scholar<\/span><\/a>who researches the politics and security of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. We asked him some questions.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is the Kabila family\u2019s place in the DRC\u2019s politics?<\/span><\/p>\n

Joseph Kabila was the country\u2019s fourth president. He took office after the assassination of his father, Laurent Kabila, who was killed<\/span><\/a> by his bodyguard in 2001. Joseph later won presidential elections in 2006<\/span><\/a> and 2011<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The surprise 2018 election<\/span><\/a> of Felix Tshisekedi, who took power in January 2019, as president interrupted more than two decades of the Kabila family\u2019s rule. At the time, Joseph was constitutionally barred from running for president \u2013 and he had already overshot<\/span><\/a> his second term by more than three years.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Kabila family became a political powerhouse after gaining control in 1996. With the assistance<\/span><\/a> of other countries \u2013 such as neighbours Uganda, Angola and Rwanda \u2013 the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo, under the leadership of Laurent Kabila, overthrew<\/span><\/a> the long-standing Zairian dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko. This was during the First Congo War (1996-1997).<\/span><\/p>\n

Laurent\u2019s tenure was riddled with ineffectiveness and corruption<\/span><\/a>. In less than two years, he had dismissed<\/span><\/a> his minister of defence, the Rwandan James Kabarebe, and begun arming<\/span><\/a> anti-Rwandan forces. These forces contained actors who participated in the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Laurent claimed<\/span><\/a> his government only backed these forces after Rwanda attempted to overthrow his regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

The bloody Second Congo War (1998-2003)<\/span><\/a> led to at least two million deaths, many of them from disease and extreme poverty rather than warfare itself. While Kabarebe\u2019s invasion attempt on the capital Kinshasa in 1998 failed<\/span><\/a>, the vast DRC was divided into spheres of influence for different nations and their aligned rebel groups. This status quo only began to break after Laurent\u2019s assassination, which led to the rise of his son Joseph.<\/span><\/p>\n

Joseph learned military strategy, tactics and politics under Kabarebe. The two worked together after the Second Congo War to flush out many anti-Rwandan forces<\/span><\/a>. This included the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. They also campaigned<\/span><\/a> together during the 2011 presidential elections, which Joseph won.<\/span><\/p>\n

Joseph initially cast himself as a reformer who would end the Second Congo War<\/span><\/a> and pursue policies to spur political and economic development. However, instability in eastern Congo<\/span><\/a> persisted under his rule, with accusations of massive corruption that undermined the nation\u2019s development<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

How much sway does Joseph Kabila hold today?<\/span><\/p>\n

Joseph Kabila remains a strong presence<\/span><\/a> within Congo\u2019s political, economic and military institutions. He has strong networks developed over 18 years in power<\/span><\/a>. He could use this influence to sway the vote towards any of the candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n

His influence stems<\/span><\/a> from favourable business and political alliances he created when he was president. Like Mobutu, Kabila used his vast financial resources to secure favourable relationships<\/span><\/a> with Congolese and foreign business leaders. A document leak<\/span><\/a> in 2021 revealed that Kabila received over US$138 million from corruption and bribes.<\/span><\/p>\n

There were claims that the former president originally convinced<\/span><\/a> Tshisekedi to accept a power-sharing agreement. Under it, Tshisekedi would be president, while Kabila would control political decisions behind the scenes. The near appointment<\/span><\/a> of Ronsard Malonda as the president of the electoral body illustrated Kabila\u2019s political influence. Malonda held senior positions during the country\u2019s 2006, 2011 and 2018 elections. He has been accused of rigging results in favour of Kabila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such accusations have benefited Tshisekedi\u2019s election campaign<\/span><\/a>. He is depicting himself as a candidate not tied to the corruption within DRC.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Kabila does decide to campaign, political dynamics within much of Congo\u2019s civil society, military and economy will be divided. Government ministers and officials will be forced to choose to support either the incumbent or Kabila\u2019s preferred candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n

What was Tshisekedi expected to change after he routed Joseph Kabila?<\/span><\/p>\n

There was initial<\/span><\/a> hope that Tshisekedi\u2019s government would foster peace in eastern Congo, establish greater national unity and help solve the nation\u2019s economic woes after decades of corruption and conflict. However, these problems have persisted.<\/span><\/p>\n

Initially, Amnesty International praised<\/span><\/a> Tshisekedi for pardoning political prisoners and allowing greater public space for criticisms of the Congolese government. He also began investigations<\/span><\/a> on past mineral deals during the Kabila governments. As the African Union chair<\/span><\/a> from 2021 to 2022, he pushed for greater attention to the COVID-19 pandemic and promoted the African Continental Free Trade Area.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite initial attempts to foster more significant relations with Rwanda, relations soured<\/span><\/a> in 2022. This was after the Congolese government accused Rwanda of supporting the resurrected M23 rebels<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rwanda denied<\/span><\/a> the allegations. It has also accused Tshisekedi\u2019s government of being hostile to the Congolese Tutsi population<\/span><\/a> \u2013 the Banyamulenge \u2013 who are historically related to Rwandans.<\/span><\/p>\n

The US Department of State has expressed concern<\/span><\/a> about Tshisekedi\u2019s anti-Banyamulenge rhetoric, as well as democratic transparency in the upcoming election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tshisekedi\u2019s campaign strategy seems to focus on promoting security in eastern DRC by not only defeating the M23, but also attacking Rwanda for interfering in Congolese affairs. The securitisation<\/span><\/a> of the Banyamulenge and Rwanda \u2013 the political manipulation to stir public fear \u2013 has helped deflect internal criticisms of the Tshisekedi regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whether the elections take place is another area of concern. There are concerns that Tshisekedi will delay or cancel the election<\/span><\/a> by citing security concerns. If this happens, it might be perceived by domestic and international partners as political interference by the ruling regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kivu Avenir via the Conversation <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The courts will confirm the final list of candidates. One key political figure has yet to make his intentions known: Joseph Kabila. He was president for 18 years until Tshisekedi took over in 2019. The DRC\u2019s constitution allows two five-year terms, but he remained in power by delaying elections. He holds substantial political, military and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":17490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"0","type":"percentage","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[{"good_text":""}],"bad":[{"bad_text":""}],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[{"rating_text":"","rating_number":"10"}],"price":[{"shop":"","price":"","link":"","icon":""}],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"enable_post_split":"0","post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5314],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17489"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17489\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17491,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17489\/revisions\/17491"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}