Mazingira Mawili, Mantiki Mbili<\/p>\n
Mchakato wa Doha unalenga moja kwa moja kuanzisha mazungumzo kati ya Serikali ya Congo na AFC\/M23, waasi wakuu katika mgogoro wa sasa. Mazungumzo yanayotarajiwa yatazungumzia \u201cmisingi ya mgogoro,\u201d pamoja na hatua halisi za kufikia kumalizika kwa mapigano kwa kudumu Mashariki mwa DRC. Njia hii inakumbusha roho ya makubaliano ya tarehe 23 Machi 2009, yaliyo kati ya Kinshasa na CNDP, mtangulizi wa M23, ambayo ilikubali ujumuishaji wa kisiasa na kijeshi wa waasi wengi.<\/p>\n
Kwa upande mwingine, huko Washington, mazungumzo ni ya aina tofauti: ni mchakato wa kidiplomasia kati ya Kinshasa na Kigali kupitia usuluhishi wa kimataifa, ukiwa na lengo la kupunguza mvutano wa kidiplomasia kati ya nchi hizi mbili. Ingawa muktadha huu ni tofauti na mchakato wa Doha, inaathiri moja kwa moja hali ya kanda, kwa kuwa Kigali inatuhumiwa kwa kusaidia AFC\/M23 katika operesheni zao za kijeshi.<\/p>\n
Hatari ya Njia Finyu<\/p>\n
Matamko ya hivi karibuni yanayosemekana kuwa ya \u201cpamoja\u201d kati ya Serikali ya Congo na AFC\/M23 yanaonyesha muundo wa mazungumzo unaolenga hasa kuhuisha makubaliano ya awali, bila kuangalia kwa kina mantiki zilizopelekea kushindwa kwa juhudi za awali za amani. Hatari, kulingana na wataalamu wengi, ni kwamba mazungumzo haya yatakuwa ya kurekebisha tu majukumu ya pande hizo, bila kugusa mabadiliko muhimu ya kimfumo yanayohitajika ili kutuliza kanda kwa kudumu.<\/p>\n
Profesa Martin ZIAKWAU, mtaalamu wa dinamiki za usalama Mashariki mwa DRC, anatahadharisha kuhusu hatari hii: \u201cMizunguko ijayo inaweza kujikita tu kwenye tathmini ya ahadi za tarehe 23 Machi 2009, ikifuatiwa na kurekebisha kiufundi. Hii inaweza kuwa nafasi iliyopotea ya kuanzisha mageuzi ya kimsingi.\u201d Anasema kuwa bila mbinu bunifu, mazungumzo yanaweza kumalizika na \u201camani dhaifu\u201d na ya muda mfupi.<\/p>\n
Hitaji la Dharura la Mpango Kamili wa Amani<\/p>\n
Ili kuepuka mtego wa kudorora, Martin ZIAKWAU anasisitiza kuundwa kwa Mpango wa Amani wa kweli kwa Mashariki, utakaovuka tu majibu ya kijeshi. Anasema ni muhimu kushughulikia vyanzo vya mgogoro: kutengwa kisiasa, ushindani kwa rasilimali za asili, mvutano wa kikabila unaotumika, na ukosefu wa fursa za kiuchumi kwa vijana.<\/p>\n
Pia anapendekeza wataalamu wa Congo wafanye kazi juu ya mifano mbalimbali ya utabiri, ili kuandaa majibu yanayofaa kwa mabadiliko yoyote yanayoweza kutokea katika muktadha, iwe ni kupanda kwa mapigano, kudorora kwa mazungumzo ya kidiplomasia, au kudhoofika kwa msaada wa kimataifa.<\/p>\n
Mustakabali wa Luanda na Nairobi<\/p>\n
Kwa kukumbatia muundo mpya wa mchakato wa mazungumzo, mustakabali wa michakato ya Luanda (chini ya usuluhishi wa Angola) na Nairobi (iliyosaidiwa na Jumuiya ya Afrika Mashariki) inaonekana kuwa hatarini. Ufanisi wao unaweza kutetewa ikiwa mchakato wa Doha utatoa makubaliano tofauti, na kusukuma juhudi za kikanda pembeni.<\/p>\n
Katika muktadha huu wa kubadilika, changamoto kwa Kinshasa ni mbili: kufanikiwa kupata dhamana thabiti ya amani kwenye uwanja wa vita huku ikihakikisha ufanisi wa kimkakati na washirika wake wa Kiafrika ili kuepuka kutengwa kidiplomasia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Mazingira Mawili, Mantiki Mbili Mchakato wa Doha unalenga moja kwa moja kuanzisha mazungumzo kati ya Serikali ya Congo na AFC\/M23, waasi wakuu katika mgogoro wa sasa. Mazungumzo yanayotarajiwa yatazungumzia \u201cmisingi ya mgogoro,\u201d pamoja na hatua halisi za kufikia kumalizika kwa mapigano kwa kudumu Mashariki mwa DRC. Njia hii inakumbusha roho ya makubaliano ya tarehe 23 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":17877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"Wakati Mashariki ya Jamhuri ya Kidemokrasia ya Congo (DRC) ikiwa bado inakumbwa na mgogoro wa usalama mkali, mabadiliko mapya ya kidiplomasia na kisiasa yanaibuka kwenye jukwaa la kimataifa. Katika Doha, mchakato wa mazungumzo unaendelea kati ya Serikali ya Congo na Muungano wa Mto Congo (AFC) ulio na muungano na M23, huku Washington ikishuhudia mazungumzo ya kidiplomasia yanayokaribisha Kinshasa na Kigali. Dinamiki hii mbili, ambazo ni tofauti lakini zinakwenda sambamba, zinatoa maswali muhimu kuhusu mustakabali wa michakato ya amani ya Luanda na Nairobi, ambayo hadi sasa imekuwa nguzo ya juhudi za kutuliza hali ya kanda."},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"","type":"percentage","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[],"bad":[],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[],"price":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5314,5311,5317],"tags":[5563],"class_list":["post-17875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-international","category-security","tag-doha"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17875"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17875\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17876,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17875\/revisions\/17876"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kivuavenir.com\/sw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}